I recently came across the idea of foxes and hedgehogs in a Cautionary Tales podcast episode. It has inspired this post in my occasional series on Strategy Deployment and other ideas. Isaiah Berlin popularised the metaphor in an essay and subsequent book, which is based on an excerpt from a classic poem from ancient Greece.
The excerpt is:
“The fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing”.
Archilochus
Subsequently, numerous authors and academics have referenced it, including Philip Tetlock in his work on Superforecasting.
What are foxes and hedgehogs?
Telock argues that so-called experts can be considered to be hedgehogs, and are generally wrong in their predictions. Meanwhile, superforecasters can be considered to be foxes and are more likely to be correct in their predictions. The difference between the two types of people is that foxes explore many options and possibilities and are more likely to change their minds. However, hedgehogs focus on one big idea that they think is the right one and therefore don’t change their minds.
Why is this relevant?
While this distinction between two types of people is clearly an oversimplification, it does resonate with me. From a Cynefin perspective, hedgehogs tend to think the world is ordered (clear or complicated). Foxes tend to think the world is complex. Cynefin as a sensemaking framework is designed to recognise that there are different domains, that they are all equally valid in context, and that they require different approaches. In the same way, the analogy of foxes and hedgehogs recognises that people have different preferences and tendencies and that they are both valid in context. Thus neither is right or wrong, and it’s even possible to apply the two approaches in combination.
What’s this got to do with Strategy Deployment?
Strategy deployment requires a mix of both fox and hedgehog thinking. The hedgehog brings a clear sense of direction, while the fox brings flexibility and options for progressing on the journey. Using the TASTE model, having a clear True North and Aspirations is a hedgehog attribute. Strategy as an enabling constraint can be thought of as a liminal state. It provides both a hedgehog’s focus with guiding policies and a fox’s freedom to allow solutions to emerge. Using Tactics and Evidence in a portfolio of experiments and bets is a fox attribute.
The X-Matrix brings all of these elements together such that the fox and hedgehog can work together coherently.